The main event down under this weekend will be against the former Lightweight champion of the world, BJ Penn and one of the best welterweights mixed martial arts has ever seen, Jon Fitch.
Recently jumping up into the 170 lbs division, BJ Penn saw his first win since inside the Welterweight category after falling victim to Geroges St. Pierre in January of 2009. The recent jump was made after losing two straight to the current defending Lightweight champion Frankie Edgar. The first fight in Abu Dhabi, Penn showed a timidness unlike anything he has exhibited before. Failing to land strikes and successfully landing a takedown, Frankie Edgar began to expose the weaknesses of the once great Lightweight. After the bell rang and Edgar walked away with the title an immediate re-match was given and the same result flurried after five rounds of dominance for the new champion several months later.
After a sit-down with Dana White, Penn moved up to 170 lbs in rubber match against UFC standout Matt Hughes. This match would determine the fate of Penn inside the Octagon and his legacy in future months to come. It only took 21 seconds to dispose of Hughes when Penn landed a right hand that dropped the All-American Division I collegiate wrestler before hammering out a win on the ground. Penn pre-fight interview with Fitch stated, 'I had all that adrenaline built up, and then it went 21 seconds, so I had to let it out, it still has to come out somehow.' in regards to his latest fight.
Penn has been interviewed and is exhibiting signs of happiness and content coming into this bout. The day before boarding the plane to Australia, Penn vlogged himself eating Dim Sum with the family, happily stuffing his face. He in the past has discussed how the cut to 155 lbs can be difficult at times and drain him of a lot of energy. The cut for a lot of atheletes can be draining and questions then naturally arise, what if they just fought, natural (weight). This is the case for Penn, he will be fighting at his natural weight.
Penn also has his problems, several bad outings at 170 lbs shows his biggest flaw. Cardio has been his achilles heel. Only winning one out four of his most recent wins at 170, with the one win coming in 21 seconds to Hughes, the question still lingers, can he hang with the bigger boys?
Fitch on the other hand will be right at home. Accumulating a record of 23-3 over his illustrious career, Jon Fitch has established himself as one of the greatest Welterweight fighters of all time. Fitch is riding a five-fight win streak, coming off wins of Akihiro Gono, Paulo Thiago, Mike Pierce, Ben Saunders, and Thiago Alves all via Unanimous Decision. Which raises an interesting question, can Penn hang with the likes of a grinder like Fitch?
Jon Fitch last saw a defeat against a common foe, Georges St. Pierre, losing in a decision. Prior to this loss his last defeat came in December of 2002 against Wilson Gouviea. 'My energy levels are through the roof, I feel like I'm 20 again.' Fitch stated in a recent interview with the UFC.
Current odds have Fitch (-200) over Penn (+160), and this is surprising. Granted the odds change due to fluctuation in where the money is going but, there is no reason that this fight should be as close as it is. After watching the last three fights Penn is going to have to prove more. Several bad fights in 170 have left Penn with a bad taste in his mouth and with a 21 second taste-test of the 'new' BJ, he will have have to prove he is more than a 'one-hit-wonder'. He still has to prove his endurance in the upper weight class.
There is no question that Fitch can beat Penn but will he be able to finish him?
My Prediction: Fitch via decision
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